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Steel Market Trends and Outlook: November 11-17, 2025
The Chinese steel market demonstrated a mixed but generally upward trend during the week of November 11-17, 2025, driven by policy stimuli and regional demand variations, while facing challenges from seasonal factors and uneven industry recovery. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of price movements across major steel products and offers insights into the market's short-term outlook.
Price Movements: Regional Divergence and Product Differentiation
Construction steel prices showed significant volatility with an overall upward trajectory. On November 11, the benchmark rebar futures closed at 3,025 yuan/ton, marking a 0.33% daily decline and a 0.62% drop over five days, reflecting initial market caution. However, sentiment shifted dramatically as the week progressed. By November 17, major steel mills implemented successive price hikes: Maanshan Iron & Steel raised its construction steel guidance prices by 50 yuan/ton, with Hefei warehouse-delivered rebar reaching 3,540 yuan/ton and wire rod at 3,760 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, Anhui Yangtze Iron & Steel (Baowu Yangtze) increased螺纹钢, coil rod, and high-speed wire prices by 40 yuan/ton, pushing the listed price of seismic rebar to 3,450 yuan/ton in Hefei.
Regional disparities were pronounced. Southern markets outperformed their northern counterparts due to climate advantages. Guangxi Guixin Iron & Steel implemented three price increases on November 17 alone, totaling 70 yuan/ton, with rebar prices climbing from 3,215 yuan/ton to 3,255 yuan/ton. In contrast, northern regions like Xinjiang entered a seasonal downturn as snowfall disrupted construction activities, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation and increased capital pressure on steel mills.
Industrial steel products faced greater headwinds. Stainless steel round bar prices remained stable with minor declines, as weak raw material costs failed to stimulate demand. The Wenzhou market saw 304 round bar prices range between 12,050-12,150 yuan/ton, while 316L round bars traded at 22,700-22,800 yuan/ton. Scrap steel markets showed modest gains, with the national heavy scrap price index rising 1.27 to 2,062.539 yuan/ton on November 17, indicating gradual cost-side support.
Driving Factors: Policy Boosts vs. Seasonal Constraints
Two major policy developments shaped market dynamics. First, the U.S. Senate's termination of comprehensive tariff policies created potential export opportunities, particularly for cold-rolled sheets and galvanized sheets. Second, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas for infrastructure projects, focusing on transportation, energy, and water conservancy sectors—key drivers of construction steel demand. These measures triggered speculative activity in futures markets, with coking coal and coke futures surging to two-and-a-half-month highs earlier in November.
However, fundamental constraints persisted. The manufacturing PMI remained below the 50-point threshold at 49.0% in October, reflecting weak demand from machinery and home appliance industries. The real estate sector continued its deep adjustment, with construction site steel purchases down over 30% year-on-year. Steel traders reported sluggish inventory turnover and prolonged payment terms, limiting their ability to participate in market rallies.
Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Structural Opportunities
The steel market is expected to maintain a "policy-driven but fundamentally constrained" pattern in the near term. Construction steel prices may benefit further from accelerating infrastructure project launches as special bond funds are disbursed. Analysts anticipate continued price hikes from southern steel mills, while northern markets could stabilize as inventories reach seasonal peaks.
Industrial steel faces greater uncertainty. While export-oriented products like cold-rolled sheets may gain from improved U.S.-China trade relations, domestic manufacturing demand is unlikely to recover significantly before year-end. Steel mills are likely to continue optimizing product structures, increasing output of high-value-added products for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic brackets to offset weakness in traditional sectors.
Cost volatility will remain a key watchpoint. Iron ore prices experienced a 4.5% daily drop to 800 yuan/ton earlier in November, while coking coal prices showed resilience. This divergence will pressure steel mills to balance production costs and market prices, potentially leading to selective production cuts among high-cost producers.
In conclusion, the steel market enters the final quarter with cautious optimism. Policy stimuli will provide short-term support, but sustainable recovery requires stronger evidence of demand improvement in manufacturing and real estate. Traders and end-users are advised to adopt flexible strategies, focusing on regional arbitrage opportunities and closely monitoring inventory dynamics.